The Dain Curse by Dashiell Hammett

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

After three rather arduous non-fiction reads, I was more than eager for a quick injection of crime mystery, one of my favorite fictional genres. Hammett, most famous for The Maltese Falcon, is certainly one of the most well-regarded American mystery writers. And it was a late night viewing of The Maltese Falcon with its solid performance from Bogart and a quirky and devilish Peter Lorre as Joel Cairo that prompted me to dive further into the works of Hammett.

It is clear that Hammett knows what he is writing about after having been a private investigator for many years. His writing style is tight, direct with no superfluous words. In both The Maltese Falcon and The Dain Curse the stories move at a breakneck speed. To be honest, some time the speed and number of characters in the latter was too much for me. I often had to flip back a few chapters to remind myself who was who and what had they done. The book does not disappointment but it did not leave me floored either.

What crime/mystery writers do you like?

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When Markets Collide by Mohamed El-Erian

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Subtitle: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change

As 2009 comes to a close and we prepare for the unknowns of 2010, it seems a just time to quickly summarize the current status of our global economy.

There is a global shift taking place from the traditional power centers - the U.S. and to a lesser degree Western Europe - towards heavily populated, emerging players. This shift, which would have taken place even without the near collapse of our financial system, is now intertwined with the decisions made to stave off disaster over the last year.

The United States acted as the motor for growth and consumption over the last fifty years. The American consumer has driven this consumption, especially over the last twenty years, through debt. We are all aware this can no longer occur and a shift towards savings and debt repayment means consumption will have to come from elsewhere. This U.S. led consumption has made an enormous impact on other countries as well. By importing more goods than it exported, the U.S. generated a large current account deficit resulting in the sending of vast sums of US dollars to the exporting countries. Oil producing nations have likewise accumulated hundreds of billions of dollars due to the exporting of oil to the U.S. and other rich world countries. Amassed with US dollars these countries through vehicles such as sovereign wealth fund, are seeking a home for their liquid dollar assets - from homes on the French Riviera to large stakes in Morgan Stanley.

As exporting nations have been producing goods for the U.S. at low cost, they have put ever more demand on natural resources (commodities). They have begun to see an upward pressure on wages as their local economies grow. Both of these factors, demand for commodities and increasing wages, will fuel inflation. Add on top of this the government spending in the rich world in the forms of various stimulus plans and inflationary concerns abound even though we are currently in a quasi-deflationary period.

Basic demographics are also changing with Europe's population getting older, the US being in between and countries such as Brazil possessing a rather young population. Governments will have to respond accordingly as they struggle to provide the services these population segments require. Demands for certain goods and services will become more relevant based on these shifts.

The above encapsulation of global economics is the context within which El-Erian, the world's largest bond investor, and former directer of Harvard's Endowment fund, frames this concise and relevant text. The majority of the book is spent setting the stage for what is to come and what has developed over the last few eventful years.

He then attempts to outline measures that can be taken to benefit from these shifts taking place. How as investors can we accumulate the wealth needed to support a prosperous future? And, equally as important, how can we counter balance our portfolios to prevent massive loss through huge downswings in markets or erosion of certain asset classes due to inflationary effects?

I am no longer in possession of the book so I can only recall what stayed with me since I read it over one month ago. This will have certainly been meshed together with my own beliefs. Perhaps this is a more useful exercise. Some points for investing in the future:

1. Develop a view of the global economy and dedicate a certain percentage of assets to the shifts you believe likely to occur. If inflation is a concern due to rising wages in Southeast Asia, commodities, real estate or inflation protected securities will be safer bets than cash or certain types of equities.

2. Watch out for "home bias". Investors have the tendency to buy stocks from their home country, especially in the U.S. but also in other countries as well. Active Swedish investors place 48% of their invested money in Swedish stocks even though Sweden makes up 1% of the global economy (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008). Investing in what you know makes sense up to a certain degree but does not warrant such a disproportional approach. This is equally true in the States where a robust and transparent equity market warrants a large percentage of investment focus but not the absurdly high percentages most Americans have in their home market.

3. Emerging Market Government Bonds can essentially be grouped with more traditional bond types as their government balance sheets are in healthier shape than many more traditional markets, e.g. Greece and Ireland.

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The Prize by Daniel Yergin

Sunday, November 22, 2009

To claim The Prize to be a book on the history of oil already by such definition limits the impact this commodity has had on the development of society over the last 150 years. What it really is is an analysis of global economic and military history over this time period framed within the context of oil.

The book begins by concentrating on the historic period before World War I when Winston Churchill, as civilian head of the Royal Navy, began to see the importance of replacing the coal fired fleets of the British navy with those using oil in order to gain in speed and agility. Yergin chooses this as his starting point, even though he then moves back 60 years to the true founding, because this was an important turning point in how oil was used. It was at this time when oil became a "disruptive technology" as it moved from an energy source mainly used for providing light to one that would become the standard form of fuel for all transportation.

After this introduction, The Prize returns to its chronological unfolding using as the starting point a key series of scientific discoveries regarding oil's potential uses and then later to the first wave of major U.S. discoveries. Though oil's history can be dated back long before this, the foundation of oil as an industry and major fuel source has an American heritage. .

In 1859 the Drake Well in central Pennsylvania was hit thus sparking the first wave of oil mania. This mania brought all types of people from expert scientists and geologists to green thumb enthusiasts with nothing to lose. The creation of boom towns in desolate parts of the U.S. became common. These towns would quickly be erected often to satisfy the needs of the fortune seekers (booze and prostitution). Means for distributing the oil would be hastily devised with a very short term approach to get the black liquid to far off markets. Once the source showed signs of reduced volumes or a bigger source was discovered elsewhere, the towns would quickly find their streets and brothels empty. The comparisons between the boom towns and the massive cookie cutter neighborhoods erected in the last five years in the States during our latest housing boom are strikingly similar.

The next part of the book explores how the fragmented industry, from finding the oil to distributing it, paved the way for on opportunity of massive levels of consolidation and vertical integration. It was seized and later exploited mainly by one man - John Rockefeller of Standard Oil. Rockefeller bought other oil companies both large and small, keeping the efficient ones and merely closing down the others to limit any potential threat of competition. Standard Oil was the first true monopoly in the U.S., controlling 90% of the oil derivative, kerosene. Its dominance led way to growing discontent of the American public who lacked alternatives to Standard Oil products and became more aware of the incredible fortune being amassed by Rockefeller as a result. In 1911 the Supreme Court ruled that Standard Oil be split into 32 different regional companies who would then compete with each other for customers and markets.

World War I was a very labor intensive struggle fought and won in the trenches with limited reliance on machinery. World War II, as painted by Yergin, was a war in which oil played a decisive role in the outcome. Both Japan and Germany lacked domestic sources of oil and were therefore dependent on other countries, namely Romania and Indonesia, to provide the oil needed to power their ships, planes and tanks. The lack of this crucial resource and the failure in certain cases to effectively distribute it to the divisions in need led to losses at key junctures in World War II events . An interesting example is how German troops, led by the brilliant Rommel, were unable to seize control North Africa to the extent desired because at key battles they were without fuel needed to power their panzer tanks.

The U.S. and Russia were instead at a particular advantage because they could rely on domestic fuel sources. An agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. also meant Britain, whose North Sea source would not be found until decades later, was also able to receive its needed share of American oil. However, having access domestically is only one part needed for success. How you manage your operations is another. Yergin's description of a floating fuel station comprised of numerous ships and tankers that were able to provide fuel to other ship fleets in the South Pacific was fascinating. Though the author dedicated several chapters explaining why Japan and Germany were greatly hindered by their lack of oil, I found the book thin on other examples of Allied success.

The post-World War II era led to the rise of what Yergin defines as the "the Hydrocarbon man", i.e. the individual consumer who developed an ever growing thirst for oil. It also was the period of the oil producing dominance of the Middle East region. The book is probably at its strongest here. It brilliantly explains how the major oil companies established themselves with marketing (downstream) channels in the consuming countries and favorable partnerships with Middle Eastern countries. By providing technical expertise in this region they were given a disproportionately large share of the revenue generated from each new barrel. Later Yergin clearly explains how OPEC was born and the economic significance it played in the market - essentially by controlling two levers - setting supply levels as well as prices per barrel.

The 800-page book is referred to as "the Bible" of oil history. The magnitude of this industry in terms of global scale and historical importance over the last 150 years means that in order to effectively write one, all-encompassing volume a certain high level approach and style is necessary. Yergin succeeds in incorporating the macro level history and economic connections oil has played over this time period. However, by taking such an approach it is inevitable that some other aspects regarding such an important subject will be less adequately addressed.

I respect the focus Yergin took in writing the book and his unrelenting ability not to defer from it. However, there were two main faults I found in doing so. The impression he gave when discussing the "hydrocarbon man" and his insatiable thirst for oil was that the oil companies were passively responding to the demand for their product that was being begged for by consumers. However it was never discussed how this demand was stimulated to such excessive levels. What was lacking in the text was an adequate explanation as to why consumption levels grew at such astounding rates over these years. What were the relationships like between the auto manufactures and the oil companies? Certainly these industries were strongly connected to the centers of power in Washington D.C. yet was never mentioned.

Hydrocarbon man became dependent on the automobile due to lack of alternatives. The classic example of the removal of all tram lines in Los Angeles certainly encouraged such behavior yet it, nor any other relevant example was even eluded to. And why were such large vehicles in such demand? Yergin refers to the adaption of the first fuel economy standards in 1975 of 27.5 mile per gallon within 10 years as revolutionary step which led to a drastic reduction in oil consumption. Though the book was published in 1990, a few years prior to the SUV boom, it is hard for his praise of such regulation not to ring hollow considering the impressive gas mileage of the Ford Expeditions and other "light trucks" exempt from these standards. Such SUVs went on to make up 50% of all vehicle sales in the U.S. The automakers gained on the higher profit margins of these vehicles as well as special deprecation status they were granted for business purposes. Oil companies also make more money the more often consumers need to fill up their cars. Such a thrust by automakers towards these types of vehicles certainly pushed hydrocarbon man's demand for oil. These type of factors were absent in his book.

The focus of The Prize as a work of economic history also meant that the small time victims of such a massive industry were ignored. As someone who is far from an expert on the industry, I am still aware of tragic stories such as the one of Ken Saro-Wiwa's, who fought against Shell and the Nigerian government because of the environmental damage the oil drilling was causing in the Niger delta. A reference, at least collectively, to the victims of the oil industry as well as the environmental impact it has made was something due in the book yet was nowhere to be found.

Regardless, The Prize is required reading for those on all sides of the debate as it provides the foundation to what has become the lubricant of our daily lives.

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L'eleganza del Riccio (The elegance of the Hedgehog) by Muriel Barbery

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Ah, France! This novel, with such French attitude, scoffs at the wealthy for their shallowness, as well as their unmerited sense of cultural superiority over the social classes below them. Barbery does this by focusing her story around two central characters: the door-woman of an elegant resident building in central Paris and the twelve year old daughter of one of the families living in the building. Both of these characters are made to be the most culturally and intellectually astute individuals in the novel, much more so than the barbarians that grace the floors of the building.

It would be easy to dismiss the stereotypes portrayed of French society as cliche', however, they are made so apparent throughout the novel that their blatancy somehow makes them comical. Instead, the subtler aspects of the book touch on more philosophical arguments regarding such subjects as art, beauty, the purpose of life, and human existence - shall we say the pain et beurre of French intellectual thought.

The story is simple and for this reason pleasurable. The door-woman, Ms. Michel, lives what at first glance appears to be a monotonous life, ignored by the inhabitants of the building. However, she finds comfort in this solitude and actually makes all efforts possible to draw as little attention to herself as possible. To do so she must hide all her intellectual pursuits as not to raise any questions in the eyes of the pseudo-intellects around her. However, they are probably too stupid to pick up on them anyway. When Ms. Michel is not reading Russian literature, she is hammering away at the shallow and miserable lives of the rich around her. There is a certain sense of irony here since the pursuits such as shopping, shampooing hair multiple times and wearing make-up are looked down upon by her that is until she catches the eye of a new resident to the building - Mr. Oke, a retired Japanese.

Mr. Oke, being someone truly steeped in culture and intellectual capacity is quickly able to see how the door-woman is not a typical type. He then begins inviting her to various activities much as Richard Gere did to Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman. The response of Ms. Michel is not much different in that those superficial activities of the wealthy become appealing as soon as someone comes along who is interested in her.

When compared to modern American novels, this book is more layered in that it offers a straightforward story of its characters but also dives deeper into more philosophical discussions. There are a lot of cultural references as well. What I see as being the major difference when compared to modern American novels is how Barberry writes to a more educated, cultured audience than most writers do in the States. As this book was the bestselling one in France over the last couple of years, we can assume therefore, that it was read by people of all socioeconomic backgrounds. Heaven help us if it had only remained in the upper echelons of French society!

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Remix by Laurence Lessig

Wednesday, August 19, 2009


The subtitle is "making art and commerce thrive in the hybrid economy"

I do not want to start off this post by saying something cliche' like any working in ecommerce, new media, or Internet services should read this book though the temptation is there. Instead I will say that in my own line of work this book has already given me a new way to approach certain arguments and a new way to conceptualize how the Internet and its economic and sociological implications are developing at present time.

Remix is a comfortable, insightful and at times funny read. It is written by a Stanford law professor with a very strong background in Internet and commerce. He presents the book with simple language and clear examples which tend to favor a more business or political audience than one specialized in law.

The central argument of this book is that our copyright laws in the digital economy are outdated and ineffective - ineffective for both consumers of copyrighted content and the suppliers of it. It is a system that penalizes the small actors on stage but also complicates matters for big business who spend endless amounts of money policing those who abuse the current laws. There needs to be news ways to tax the revenue generated by the sale of artists' goods.

The copyright laws in place were developed in an analog world when sharing a record meant physically giving the copy to someone else thus taking the copy away from yourself. Later on with the advent of cassette, records and photocopy machines, it became possible to make lower quality copies of music or books while keeping the original. However, the situation has changed dramatically with digital technology. The "copy" has a new definition. Now an MP3 file copy is identical to the original. When a copy is made the original is not effected. The Internet and high-speed data networks make the dispersal of these copies simple and fast.

One argument that resonated with me is how outdated copyright laws are impeding the development of a new forms of culture and expression. The way users in the digital world paste a collage of photos, sample music or piece together multimedia presentations is something new that needs to be promoted as a new form of cultural expression. Copyright laws which make a DJ ask for permission to use a 10 second sample of someone else's music slowdown this development. Not only do they restrict the spawning of new culture they also punish these "aggregating artists" as well as other smaller businesses and entrepreneurs lacking the resources to battle the legal bureaucracy of copyright. It is essentially another way the US government is picking winners alla GM. Large record labels, for example, benefit at the expense of smaller players. By supporting these traditional, established players we risk missing out on the birth of new, unknown industries which would result from this cultural innovation.

Lessig's book was a bit thin on alternative ways artists could be properly paid for their work. One suggestion was to add a tax onto Internet access. This tax would then be divided among artists based on what percentage of the total volume of file sharing traffic their songs made up. However, the lack of alternatives does not hinder the book in my eyes.

What I appreciated most about Remix was how it attempted to address an issue we are facing now in modern society. It is a book for the business community that does not heap praise on past "heroes" but instead provides means to better conceptualize the digital economy and how it is developing before our eyes. It also reminds us of how such an economy is blurring the lines between business and society in a way that has not been seen for a long time.

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Herzog by Saul Bellow

Sunday, August 9, 2009

"I think I can say, however, that I have been spared the chief ambiguity that afflicts intellectuals, and this is that civilized individuals hate and resent the civilization that makes there lives possible. What they love is an imaginary human situation invented by their own genius and which they believe is the only true and the only human reality." Saul Bellow

The above quote was taken from one of the hundreds of letters, never sent, that were written by the protagonist of this novel - Moses Herzog. Herzog's letters are rich with philosophical insight and show the depth with which Bellow was able to write.

However, the purpose of this post is to turn to the readers of my blog to ask their own interpretation of Herzog. The book centered on one character the entire time. We are provided access to his writings, conversations and thoughts. Yet, even with such insight I struggled to understand him and therefore could not fully appreciate the book. What was driving him? How enraged was he by the divorce with his wife? How did he view modern society? I am curious for answers to these questions. Fresh insight from others is always appreciated.

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